Casey Johnston
9/27/10
<http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2010/09/internet-search-numbers-fair-predictors-of-consumer-behavior.ars>
A group of Yahoo researchers looked at the internet search queries for products to determine what would be a good seller and what consumers would want to get. They would look at CD's, movies, and even games and look at how many searches were done for each item and compare them. They would use this information as a predictor to see what item would do better. In many cases the searches for different items was a success for determining how popular something would be. The even took it one step further and used it for cold and flu symptoms. By seeing how many searches were done for each it could help determine the spread of the flu and cold, after comparing the predictions of the spread of the flu with one and two week old data from the Center of Disease Control and Prevention. All in all the search data performed by the Yahoo researchers was often better than other indicators at predicting how popular an item would be. But still, the searchers were regularly outperformed by more traditional formulas.
I think that this was an interesting way to go about seeing how well an item would perform. While it couldn't be totally accurate, it would still give people a general idea of how well a product would do, or not do. It is definitely a different means of going about trying to figure something like that out. But when you think about it, it makes since. It is only natural that when someone wants a product or wants to know more about it they will research it. When people research it they may tell others to look at it, which spreads the word and increases searchers.
I think this is a very interesting look at what yahoo is doing. It makes me wonder why they decided to do this and what other things they have been researching as well. I like that they used the flu as an example because everyone is interested when it comes to news about the flu and the spread of the flu. I agree with what you said in your response to the article it is and interesting and unique way to see how things perform in searches.
ReplyDeleteI agree with what you said. I think people more often than not research something through the internet before they shell out their time or money on that product, or in an attempt to better understand something such as the flu or other sicknesses. I think this would be a fairly accurate predictor as it is common for people to search google or other search engines for just about every thing they need or want to know. I think this will grow and manufacturers will start using these predictors as a way to better their business and found out quicker what the consumer wants.
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